How 2018 could be the best year for Republicans

Midterms, midterms, midterms! Just as important as presidential elections but with almost half the voter turnout! Even though we just had a presidential election, we are already gearing up for some good ol’ political fun. Here are five things you need to know about midterm elections and what may happen in 2018:

  1. Midterm elections are referendums on the party in power

The president will have been in office for about two years by the time midterms come around on Nov. 6, 2018. Depending on his popularity as this time, this could be Republicans’ 60 Senate seat, filibuster-proof dream come true. If Trump stands to increase his approval rating before midterms, his party could gain several seats in the Senate, arguably the most important branch in government right now.

  1. Democrats are fighting the Trump effect

Democrats are defending their seats in states that used to be Clinton’s blue wall, but are now Trump’s election winners. These states, like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, went red on Nov. 8 and could do so again two years later. These races are going to be the ones to watch as the Trump administration affects jobs in these states.

  1. Democrats need some good news so here we go!

The party who is not in control of the executive branch has gained at least a few seats in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections in the House2. Democrats need at least 24 seats to take back the House and that has happened 11 of those 18 times. Also, Democrats have fought the demographic battle before and can have some resounding victories again this year. But, that was contingent on the low approval rating of the Republican Party in these races.

  1. The Republicans still have a massive advantage in the Senate

Democrats only stand to lose a possible 23 seats plus two seats of independent candidates who caucus with Democrats in the coming reelection. If Trump is going to do as well as a majority of Republicans say he is going to do, they are going to have a rather prosperous time in the legislative branch after 2018. Furthermore, Republicans have only eight seats up for reelection in the Senate and only two have any real possibility of becoming toss up elections, Nevada and Arizona. Even then, it is really just an incumbent race in Nevada.  

  1. Anything can happen

Republicans have a reason to be hopeful. They had astounding victories in 2016 and maintain control of more state governments than Democrats. Moreover, Trump has been fulfilling campaign promises left and right while GOP leadership works hard on repealing Obamacare and forming a new conservative order for American politics. Republicans have the chance to get a filibuster-proof Senate, more seats in the House, and establish a conservative majority in the Supreme Court for decades. All they need to do is make Trump popular.

Sources used:

  1. http://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#voter_turnout_101
  2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/12/06/why-you-should-watch-the-house-in-2018/?utm_term=.a90649a9ba14

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